Will govt meet its year end inflation target?

The government in its 2013 budget statement and economic policy projected a stable economic growth for the year with inflation expected to remain in single digit in 2013.
This projection was made on the back of government’s plans to reduce its deficit and maintain stability in the exchange rate to achieve its end year inflation target of nine per cent.
Inflation, also known as the Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change over time in the general price level of goods and services that households acquire for the purpose of consumption.
Surprisingly, despite this projection, inflation has reverted to double digit in the first quarter of 2013. In February the rate stood at 10 per cent and  increased to 10.4 per cent in March and subsequently to its current rate of 10.6 per cent.
The last time the economy recorded double digit rate was in June 2012 (10.68%) after which it kept fluctuating between nine and eight per cent, with the last single digit pegging at 8.8 per cent in January 2013.
In February 2013, when the economy recorded the highest rate of 10 per cent, it  was attributed to a rise in the ex pump prices of petroleum products in that month and that had a rippling effect on prices of goods and services.
Again in March, when the rate inched up to 10.4 per cent, the rise was attributed to the constant increase in the food and non food components in the inflation basket and on  the back of the hikes in fuel prices that took a while to settle.
The Ghana Statistical Service,  again blamed the rise of the April rate (10.6%) on the reflection of the seasonality trend of inflation rate over the years and the crippling effect of the currency depreciation.
It reports that the Cedi depreciated by about 1.45 per cent as compared to the US dollar in April 2013 and since Ghana is an import dominant country; imported items would be costly thereby resulting in higher prices.
Meanwhile, the GSS has hinted that it will start using the revised CPI basket to compute inflation from June this year.
The revised CPI index is to make sure that various household consumption patterns over time are reflected in the rate. This new index would have 2012 as its base year against the current 2002 index being used by the GSS.
The new basket will comprise 272 commodities, up from the current basket composition of 242 items to better reflect what pertains on the ground.
Acting Deputy Government Statistician in charge of Technical Support explains that the year-on-year non-food inflation rate for April was 13.0 per cent compared to 13.2 per cent recorded in March 2013.
The price drivers for the non-food inflation rate were miscellaneous goods and services (15.6%), transport (14.7%), clothing and footwear (14.1%) and Education (14.1%).
The year-on-year food inflation rate was 6.4 per cent, up from 5.5 per cent rate recorded for March 2013.
The price drivers for the food inflation were mineral water, soft drinks and juices (16.8%), milk, cheese and eggs (15.4%), sugar, jam, honey, syrups, chocolate, confectionary (11.4%) and coffee, tea and cocoa (11.3%).
On the regional level, the Greater Accra Region recorded the highest year-on-year inflation rate of 12.6 per cent, followed by Ashanti Region with 10.7 per cent while the Western Region recorded the least rate 8.5 per cent. GB